Saturday 13 December, 2008

Rabi Chana and Lentil acreage up, Tur fresh crop arrival started in Karnataka & Maharashtra

New Delhi, 11 Dec. Initially opening at Rs 2150-2175 per quintal, chana prices recovered by Rs 100 per quintal so far this week amidst slight recovery in exchanges (NCDEX & MCX) coupled with some fresh buying from millers/processors at lower levels. The average daily arrivals also increased to 40 motors on daily basis which capped the gains besides higher chana acreage and expectation of a huge crop this season. According to the data released by Ministry of Agriculture total area covered as of December 4, 2008 is up by 13.82 per cent at 7.1 million hectares compared to 6.1 million hectares in corresponding period last year. Increased area reported in Maharashtra, Karnataka, MP, UP and other growing regions except Rajasthan (a major chana producing state) where area is reported lower by 12-13 per cent due to late start of sowing amid hot and dry weather during mid October onwards. Reportedly good stocks of chana reported in MP which further kept prices under check. Weather remains favorable for good chana crop growth at across the major growing regions like MP, Karnataka, AP, and Rajasthan etc.

Peas prices mostly remained on the softer side during the period on subdued trade. Good stocks and huge imports weighing on prices. Reportedly, around 1,00,000 tonnes yellow/white and about 15,000 tonnes Dun peas lying at Tuticorin. Sluggish demand for chana and its product further kept peas prices under check. Higher acreage in current Rabi season also added weakness. Green peas prices mostly remained stable. However, as the importers are not having enough funds due to current financial crisis, they may liquidate their stocks which may pressure prices. In near to medium term yellow peas prices may dip on continuous supply against subdued demand. However, any improvement in chana and its products may lend support to peas prices. Majority of urad cash markets featured steady sentiment on subdued trade and tight supply following lower production in the Kharif season. Reportedly millers are buying hand to mouth amid poor offtake in processed urad (dal) which kept prices under check besides regular huge import. However, lower availability of good quality urad lent support to the prices to some extent. Meanwhile, during the current Rabi season urad acreage declined slightly as farmers are mostly diverting their fields for chana and other important Rabi crops. This shows once again the output may be lower, which may boost the prices. But govt. intervention to keep prices at lower side may cap the gains as govt. is contemplating a proposal to import more pulses to overcome the deficit.

A steady tone also featured in key Tur cash markets during the period amidst subdued trade and tight supply. Tightening supply following lower stocks as well as expectation of lower production due to lower acreage supporting the sentiment besides. However, restricted offtake from millers/processors following dull demand for its product (dal). Meanwhile, new tur arrival started in Karnataka and AP markets and about 1000-1300 bags new tur arrivals reported on a daily basis. But due to higher moisture and inferior quality (baarik) millers are mostly buying the old one thus, fetching premium. Furthermore, the preliminary trade estimate shows that the tur output would be only 65-70 per cent of the last year (26 lakh tonnes), which hints for a lower crop once again and may boost the prices. But the govt. intervention to keep prices at lower side may cap the gains. Also govt. is considering a proposal to import more pulses to overcome the deficit. A steady to weak sentiment featured in Masoor key cash markets on dull trade despite tight supply. Higher acreage in current Rabi season is weighing on prices, while poor availability following lower stocks is supporting the sentiment. As of December 4, 2008 the Masoor acreage has grown considerably by 17.3 per cent to 1.24 million hectares compared to 1 million hectares in corresponding period last year.

Moong prices mostly remained stable at majority of cash markets on subdued trading activity. Reportedly tightening supply following lower stocks as well as mild buying from millers supported the sentiment. Meanwhile, any decline in prices may attract stockists. International moong prices softened considerably. But higher parity due to currency devaluation kept imports restricted. According to the November crop production release of Statistics Canada shows that farmers harvested record dry field peas. Prairie farmers harvested a record amount of field peas. The production of field peas reached 3.6 million tonnes, up 21.7% from 2.9 million tonnes in 2007. Robust yield and record harvest area combined to produce this record. Production rose in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Production in Saskatchewan was a record 2.7 million tonnes, and production in Alberta was a record 7,31,400 tonnes. Statistics Canada also slashed chickpea (chana) estimate in its latest crop report. It slashed the current year’s chickpea harvest estimate from 129000 to 81000 MT. Production in Saskatchewan pegged at 67,000 MT, while output in Alberta totaled 14,000 MT. Canada’s 2008-09 available supply of chickpeas totaled at 178000 MT, down from 239800 MT last season. Field pea exports from Canada continued to remain weak during the month of November and as per the Canadian Ports Clearance Association, figures falling to their second lowest level of the past eight years. The clearance at terminals totaled at 66,609 MT compared to 1,96,436 MT during November 2007. However, exports for December are of to a better start. About four vessels are expected to lift 1,00,420 MT of field peas. In December 2007, seven vessels were loaded with 97,022 MT. Canadian, bulk field pea exports normally experience seasonal slow down at the start of New Year due to direct competition from newly harvested Dun peas in Australia. However, this was not an issue as 2008 got underway.

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